Morningstar: Советы Инвесторам на 2012 год

Недавно я посетила конференцию рейтингового агентства Morningstar «Лушие идеи и советы инвесторам на 2012» в Лос Анджелесе. Спикер Кристина Бенц - Директор по Личным Финансам Morningstar Inc. и автор книг о личных финансах, говорила о том:
· Какие рынки сегодня перегреты и какие недооценены
· Как использовать исследования для поиска свежих решений для инвестирования в фонды
· как управлять своим инвестиционным портфелем на фоне потенциального увеличения инфляции, кредитных и налоговых ставок.
Кристина даже поделилась тем, какие активы входят в ее личный инвестиционный портфель, и для многих участников такой портфель показался довольно рискованным.

Как директор по личным финансам, Кристина рекомендовала:

· Формирование инвестиционного портфеля и распределение активов между классами, секторами, валютами – это основное на что, инвестор должен обратить внимание
· Сам портфель (сочетание активов и их пропорции) должен пересматриваться регулярно. Если раньше стандарт для ревизии долгосрочного портфеля определялся в один раз в год, то в сегодняшних условиях лучше проводить ревизию ежеквартально
· При выборе новых позиций и активов в портфеле нужно идти против толпы
· Каждый инвестор вместе со своим финансовым консультантом должен определиться каков личный рост инфляции и какой он может быть в будущем. А все это зависит товаров и услуг, которые потребляет ваша семья.

По мнению Кристины Бенц, в целом рынок сейчас недооценен в среднем на 15%. А акции компаний средней капитализации - самые дорогие по отношению ко всему остальному рынку.

Развивающиеся рынки, в частности акции компаний крупной капитализации переоценены, зато акции крупных компаний США и Европы сегодня можно купить очень дешево и это редкая возможность.

Директор по Личным Финансам Морнингстар рекомендовала избегать долгосрочных облигаций и фондов облигаций. А вместо этого лучше сосредоточить часть портфеля на акциях, выплачивающие дивиденты.

Интересно было услышать от успешного инвестора как Кристина, что "звезды" Morningstar это своего рода «медаль за заслуги». И как правило, у консервативных фондов с небольшим ростом больше шансов нахватать таких «звезд». А вот волатильные агрессивные фонды редко получают "звезду", так как каждое колебание вниз наказуемо, но это не значит, что агрессивные фонды не заслуживают внимания инвесторов.

Автор: Вероника Тишкова    

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Are we going lower?

Last week the US market showed some signs of cracking its bullish momentum. The SP500 and NASDAQ fell out of their positive bullish consolidations (pennant patterns everyone is talking about) and broke back down into the August and October trading range. More bullishly, meanwhile, the DJ30 was actually holding above that trading range and continuing its pattern, also holding above the 50 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a line generally watched by large institutions. Looking at the SP600 (small cap stocks), it is pretty much doing the same thing. It is holding above the 50 day EMA and still has its pattern going.

We have a bifurcation in the market. The problem I keep coming back to is the serious decline in the NASDAQ. It should be a leader at this time of the year, and especially in any bull market. Also, the financials (XLF) continue to suffer under the weight from the EU deal or a lack of confidence in the most recent deal. No one really believes that any of the deals that have been struck will amount to relief. Higher bond yields in Europe support this.

Spanish bonds last week were trading higher than Italy's bonds. Why? The ECB is buying Italy's bonds. It is not buying Spanish ones yet; it cannot afford to. It hopes if it heads off Italy that Spain will follow, but that is not the case. The spread between the French and German bonds was up 200BP last week also. There are other problems with Europe. Germany does not want to approve any of these bailouts. It is going back to the hard line, saying that it is illegal for the ECB to perform this kind of bailout. That casts doubt upon any "deal". If there is a "new deal", will anyone really believe it?

So I ask myself, what will be the catalyst for the market to move higher? Are US retail sales going to be enough to do it?

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SHIP OF FOOLS?

An unlikely saviour has presented himself at a time when institutional and part-time investors dread to switch on the TV news each morning.

Yes, in a sea of red ink across global markets amid almost unprecedented doom and gloom forecasts, Doctor Doom himself Nouriel Roubini has emerged as the Kon Tiki to cling to as the waves rise.

For those of you not familiar with Roubini, he has been predicting the end of the world (in financial terms at least, we are not aware that he is related to the Camping family), for a few years now. And one day, he will probably be right!

However Roubini, ever the contrarian, last week declared his affection for some of the emerging markets, just as many investors are heading for the exits.

What was his rationale? Well, it wasn’t just any old emerging market which took his attention – he argued that it made much more sense to invest in Indonesia and even India rather than following the flock and pouring money into the Chinese behemoth.

His argument goes that a country like Indonesia have a much more developed internal domestic market as a percentage of GDP compared to the other orthodox ‘tigers’. Of course, China has a much bigger domestic market in terms of basic numbers but we are about to see how much the Chinese economy STILL relies on consumption in the US and Europe.

Indonesia, for example, relies much more on increasing domestic demand and a growing local consumer market and this should not only insulate the economy from the full force of a global downturn but provide a rare example of ‘low correlation’ to interlinked global markets in which its almost impossible to escape nowadays (2010 – Indonesia stock market +46%, MSCI emerging markets index +16%).

The idea of Roubinis itself is not new, in fact it was back in 2005 that Goldman Sachs coined the phrase ‘Next 11’, to succeed the BRIC economies. These N11 economys’ growth would be driven by domestic demand – as each of them have a minimum of 50million people, and are as diverse as South Korea and Iran, but with low debt/gdp ratios in common.

You may not have heard of this term but plenty people are already investing in them, for example in Castlestone Managements’ Next 11 Fund, and as corporate governance improves and liquidity constraints disappear, it seems that this might be the next big thing.

However in these stormy waters, will the N11 be the boat that stays afloat for your portfolio or will it sink without trace? Time will tell..

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Viaticals, Life Settlements and STOLIs... sound Russian but they are not!

Over the years, many clients have brought investments in life insurance policies to our attention as these have become popular as alternative investment funds. We have always been skeptical of the payouts and liquidity issues, but now two new court rulings show additional risks are involved. Investor beware!

In light of two recent rulings by the Delaware Supreme Court, hedge funds and other investors will need to do their diligence to ensure that their investments abide by certain US state laws. And in any event, they should be prepared for insurance companies to increasingly challenge life insurance policies that are assigned by the insured for the benefit of third party investors.

Both cases decided by the Delaware Supreme Court involve an investment vehicle established by Deutsche Bank AG named the GIII Accumulation Trust. In each case an individual purchased a life insurance policy as part of what the life insurance companies alleged to be a stranger originated life insurance (“STOLI”) scheme, where the individual (through a trust) sold his beneficial interest to GIII shortly after purchasing the policy. The insurance companies attempted to void the applicable insurance policy as an illegal contract wagering on human life.

In each case, the Delaware Supreme Court ruled that a life insurer can contest the validity of a life insurance policy based on a lack of insurable interest, even after the two year contestability period set out under Delaware law. The court reached this result on the basis that life insurance contracts that lack an insurable interest are void ab initio as a violation of public policy against wagering (as opposed to voidable, which would implicate the two year contestability period).

For investors in what may be deemed to be STOLI transactions, the court’s decisions introduce a new element of risk, particularly where life insurance policies are pooled in securitization vehicles and may be difficult to diligence. Under the Delaware court’s decisions, it is clear that insurance companies may seek to void any STOLI policy that is found to lack an insurable interest.

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В чем опасность "сложных" фондов ETF?

Готовлю статью для www.investcafe.ru под названием "В чем опасность фондов ETF?". В статье планирую обсудить следующие моменты:

• Основную озабоченность представляют "сложные" фонды ETF, использующие кредитное плечо, деривативы и долговые обязательства для увеличения своей доходности.
• Инвестор должен обязательно изучать КУДА и КАК инвестирует выбранный фонд.
• При выборе ETF обязательно необходимо обратить внимание на ликвидность. Высокий спрэд может дорого обойтись инвестору.
• Инвестирование в "сложные" ETF может повысить как волатильность, так и ликвидность всего портфеля, а также снизить торговые издержки.

Также в статье будет представлен список ликвидных ETF, которые можно рассматривать при формировании инвестиционного портфеля. 

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Put Buyers Betting On Decline In Volatility

According to an article in Bloomberg recently, the put to call ratio on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is the highest it has been since January 2009. Currently, there are around 101 puts to every 100 calls on the VIX as traders bet that volatility will fall and the recent rally in stocks will continue. The bullish bets on the stock market come on the heels of a massive rally in the S&P 500 over the last week which has caused the VIX to fall to 30.56.

This is signalling a return to some semblance of normality. The option activity is bullish for stocks, but it also means that investors are taking off their hedges. If any unexpected bearish news were to come out, this could cause the market to fall faster than normal because market participants are not as hedged as they were earlier this Fall.

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