Мифы и заблуждения о жизни на пенсии

Выход на пенсию – это переход от одного образа жизни к другому. Опыт пенсионеров «со стажем» показывает, что существует множество мифов и заблуждений о выходе на пенсию. И часто эти мифы подаются как факты.

Сколько стоит достойное образование

Каждый из нас хочет, чтобы его ребенок был лучшим во всем, чтобы он жил в мире больших возможностей и высоких доходов, был окружен увлеченными и целеустремленными людьми.

Фиксированный доход в условиях растущих процентных ставок

С перемещением 10-летних TIPS на положительную территорию инвесторы стали ожидать ужесточение политики ФРС или, по крайней мере, сворачивание ее скорее, чем многие предполагали.

Что такого может финансовый консультант, чего я не смогу сделать сам

Все что от Вас требуется – это потратить больше времени, и успех, связанный с инвестициями, несомненно придет к Вам. Вы все еще сомневаетесь?

Когда следует идти на риск, а когда стоит «притормозить»

Мы хотим показать вам, как мы рассматриваем такое важное соотношение, как риск/доходность. Также немного затронем тему о важности выбора времени для рыночных операций.

Брошюра «ETF. Руководство»

Для того, чтобы любой начинающий инвестор мог ориентироваться во всем многообразии индексных фондов, мы подготовили брошюру «ETF. Руководство пользователя».

Ежемесячные обзоры рынков

Из наших ежемесячных обзоров Вы узнаете какие настроения довлеют на рынке, на что следует обратить внимание и, самое главное, как извлечь из этого прибыль.

Используйте секторные фонды для диверсификации портфеля

Лучший способ диверсификации может быть достигнут через понимание того, что сейчас действует глобальный рынок акций, и нужно рассматривать различные отрасли, а не страны, на этом глобальном рынке.

9 вопросов, которые должен задать себе инвестор ETF

Перед любым инвестором ETF, будь он начинающим или уже опытным финансистом, возникает ряд вопросов, ответы на которые сложно найти даже опытному инвестору.

воскресенье, 31 марта 2013 г.

Итоги и инвестиционные идеи недели (25-30 марта)

На фоне последних решений по Кипру и скатившейся в рецессию экономики еврозоны, экономическая ситуация в штатах выглядит довольно неплохо. Это отражается и на динамике фондовых индикаторов. Американские биржи завершили короткую неделю на своих исторических максимумах даже вопреки публикации не дотянувшей до прогнозов макростатистики.

С точки зрения технического анализа на лицо несколько сигналов того, что американский фондовый рынок выдыхается...

 

Автор:     linkedin small

суббота, 30 марта 2013 г.

Buffett on Gold


Buffett on Gold
Recently in Fortune, Warren Buffett devotes a few paragraphs to gold and the 'fools' worshipping it. He explains why gold is generally a lousy investment, even if its price in dollars goes up from time to time.

If you molded all the gold in the world into a cube, Buffett claims, it would be about 68 cubic feet or 21 m³. This is a little shorter but considerably wider than a tennis court. As Buffett observes, it would fit comfortably in the middle of a baseball infield. The value of all that gold at today's prices would be about $10 trillion.

As for its merit as an investment, Buffett observes the following:
  • The cube of gold will produce nothing in the next hundred years;
  • The cube of gold will not pay you interest or dividends, and it won't grow earnings;
  • You can fondle the cube, but it won't respond.
If you had $10 trillion sitting around, Buffett proclaims, instead of buying the cube of gold, you could buy all the cropland in America and 16 Exxon-Mobils and you would still have $1 trillion of pocket money. Over the next hundred years, your cropland and Exxon-Mobils would produce trillions of dollars of dividends, and you would still have them at the end of the century, at which point you could probably sell them for vastly more than the $9 trillion you bought them for. So, which investment would you choose?

For gold to be the better investment, Buffett rightly claims you need to persuade someone else that the cube of gold would be an great investment at your asking price. Because that's the only way you can ever make money in gold - if there's someone out there who is willing to buy it from you for more than you paid for it. This is true speculation!  Meanwhile, your cropland and Exxon-Mobils would likely keep throwing off tons of cash even if the market for them completely dried up. Thus, Buffett is convinced which investment will return more over the next century. His investment choice is obvious.

Food for thought...
China’s foreign currency reserves are enough to buy every central bank’s official gold supply - two times over! Meanwhile, the Chinese central bank continues to buy gold rather than dollars. 

Author:     linkedin small

среда, 27 марта 2013 г.

Итоги и инвестиционные идеи недели (18-24 марта)


В видео-обзоре вы узнаете, как ситуация на Кипре сказывается на психологии инвесторов и почему в таких условиях активно инвестировать в российские фонды было бы опасно и необдуманно.




Автор:     linkedin small

суббота, 23 марта 2013 г.

Investing in Platinum



Platinum is much scarcer than either gold or silver.  Consequently, its price tends to run significantly higher than these two metals during periods of economic stability.  In periods of uncertainty, the price can fall below that of gold due to its relatively elastic demand.  The main driver of its price is demand, as mine production is markedly lower than other precious metals. 
            Like gold and silver, platinum is traded via a variety of investment vehicles.  Investors can own physical platinum, usually in the form of coins, platinum ETF shares, platinum accounts, and shares of platinum mine stock.  Aside from its desirability as an investment asset, platinum demand stems from its use in industry and fine jewelry.  Auto makers increasingly demand platinum for its use in suppressing carbon emissions.  As legislation in the developed world continues to impose emissions criteria on the auto industry, industrial demand is likely to rise. 
            As with all precious metals, platinum serves as a hedge against fiat currency inflation.  Due to its scarcity and greater demand sensitivity, however, gold and silver remain the standard commodity safe havens when central banks print money.  Unlike gold and silver, platinum production is more heavily concentrated in emerging markets, making occasional supply side price spikes more frequent than for other metals.  In February of 2013, platinum reached a 16 month high after political events in platinum exporting South Africa drew down global supply. 
            This temporary price spike gave way to lower prices as exports resumed.  While this case is illustrative of the volatility of platinum, investors concerned about similar supply shocks should note that the supply side will generally tend to temporarily raise the price of the metal rather than lower its price.  Despite the expected fall in prices back to trend line level after the South African supply returned to world markets, several hedge funds are betting that the price will continue to rise over time.  This is in large part due to expected steady growth of industrial demand in developed countries and demand for platinum jewelry in emerging markets.    
            Investors considering investing in platinum should weigh its strengths and weaknesses against alternative precious metals.  Its role as hedge against market risk appears to be less robust compared to gold and silver during times of economic uncertainty.  In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the price of platinum fell dramatically before beginning a multi-year rise correlated with the steady rise in the price of gold.  As a check on fiat currency inflation, platinum is fairly reliable, although relative to gold, its price may be held down by the stagnant recovery. 
            In addition to considering platinum as an alternative to traditional precious metals, investors may also consider investing in platinum for the qualities it does not share with gold or silver.  As noted, its supply and demand dynamics are different than those of alternative precious metals.  Many fund managers and market analysts expect its price correlation with gold to be a temporary phenomenon, set to dissolve as the global economy begins to recover in earnest.  These analysts expect that the price of platinum will once again rise well above that of gold, making its existing low price a potentially lucrative opportunity for significant returns. 
            Those who are interested in further exploring the opportunities that platinum offers investors should talk to an experienced financial consultant about risk, potential return, and the best means of investing in the commodity.  AVC Advisory’s financial consultants offer expert advice and help investors tailor their investments to match their clients’ personal financial goals.     

четверг, 21 марта 2013 г.

Ford - A chartist perspective


We generally do not analyse individual stock for clients or agents. However, we were posed with an interesting idea from one of our agents regarding Ford (F). The stock currently trades with a P/E ratio of less than 10. The agent was wondering if this looked like a entry level for a buy on Ford. Below is our analysis on what might make Ford an interesting buy from a charting perspective.

Ford
Ford Stock Price Mark Up
Ford is consolidating now after a very strong run up to a previous resistance level around 14.30 on heavy volume. It's holding support at what has become an important diagonal trend line. A buying point would be around $12.66 (up to $12.88) with a stop around 12.30.  If Ford broke its diagonal support trend line, this would be very bearish. An initial target price for exit would be around the $14.30 area. However, Ford is currently trading right below its 50 day Moving Average (not shown on graph). It must break above for a continued run to 14.30. This makes Ford a hard stock to read as it is not  a clear bullish trending stock.

Investing is a very visual endeavour. Investors' actions are more important than their words and thoughts. Visual representations of their actions can be seen in the price and volume action on the charts. We are very accustomed to using charting tools to identify proper entries and exists for ETF trades - many of which we have discussed on this blog or on our facebook page. These same tools can be used on individual stocks.

Author:  linkedin small

Cyprus - Small Island in Big Trouble

Cyprus: lovely island of sun, sea, sand which, you may have noticed, has been in the news for other reasons this week.

As things stand, senior Cypriot government officials are in Moscow attempting to stave off an economic crisis which affects not only this small Eastern Mediterranean island, but Europe's entire financial system.

I don't want to dwell on the politics of the crisis, how it came about or the rank hypocrisy of other European governments. I want to focus on the potential issues for depositors and personal savers.

I have always had a benign attitude to clients having monies in Cyprus bank accounts, although I had been warning those with deposits there of the ever increasing risk of a default since 2008.

My advice was always to keep large deposits in life insurance wraps instead.  Certainly, there is a trade off between instant liquidity of the bank account with the myriad of benefits of a life wrap, particularly the exemption for life insurance from the European Savings Tax Directive (meaning you can actually keep your bank account within your wrap, and not pay income tax on it).

However this last week has shown that for pure security of deposits, the life wrap scores much higher.

We only use life insurance companies who are incredibly secure, preferably with low levels of 'risk' insurance and these entities should always be based in locations with enshrined legislation giving a high protection of client assets, sometimes almost 100% protection, with no ceiling.

Compare this with the potential outcome of the Cyprus debacle, where the government, forced by the wonderful people at the ECB and IMF, have made a cash grab for ordinary retail deposits.

Cyprus - Small Island in Big Trouble
If this was anywhere else but Europe (say, Chavez's Venezuela), there would be a huge outcry in the western media.  Where is the security of the banking institutions?

Where indeed is the protection of the much lauded "depositors insurance scheme"?  Well, of course, the scheme only comes into play if the institution has defaulted.  Which they haven't.  Because they took the retail depositors money.  Not the money of the stockholders of the bank.  No.  Not the money of the institutional bondholders.  No.  Just the money from the ordinary Giorgios from the street.  Breathtaking.

Let's not mince words here.

If this goes through, it will mean the end of any semblance of bank depository insurance in Europe.  It COULD happen anywhere, it COULD happen to you.

There are already murmurings that if this crazy proposal goes through, it might be the tester for getting this out in other embattled economies, primarily those of the PIGS, although other countries mentioned include the Baltic states.

Just when it seemed that the European banking system was getting off its knees, along comes another 'whammy'.

Whilst Europe waits on the outcome of the negotiations this weekend, retail investors should be consulting their financial advisors as to what they should be doing to avoid any nasty surprises in the coming few months.

Whatever the immediate outcome there will undoubtedly be a run on the Cypriot banks when (when!) they reopen, and that will do untold damage to the islands' financial industry, the genie is out of the bottle.

Author: linkedin small

понедельник, 18 марта 2013 г.

Почечная достаточность

С 2006 года каждый второй четверг марта во всем мире отмечается День почки - Всемирным днем борьбы с заболеваниями почек. Мероприятие не настолько веселое как Рождество или Масленица, но не менее важное. Согласно данным статистики сегодня в мире более 500 млн человек имеют ту или иную патологию почек, а это каждый 10 житель планеты.  А ведь помимо основной болезни,  люди с хроническими заболеваниями почек находятся также в группе риска по гипертонии, сахарному диабету и сердечно-сосудистым заболеваниям.

По данным Международной группы исследователей острого повреждения почек, острая почечная недостаточность ежегодно является причиной смерти более 4 млн человек во всем мире. В то же время осведомленность общества о болезнях почек остается низкой, большинство людей недооценивают жизненно важную роль почек в организме. И хотя по утверждению специалистов защитить почки можно, придерживаясь здорового образа жизни. В частности, регулярные физические нагрузки предупреждают развитие гипертонии и снижают риск хронической болезни почек. Все-таки не стоит забывать о необходимости следить за состоянием своего здоровья и во время обращаться к специалистам. Своевременная диагностика и лечение острой почечной недостаточности могут привести к восстановлению функции почек у 50% пациентов.
Сегодня в России около 15 млн человек страдают различными почечными заболеваниями, не стоит пополнять эту армию. Современные медицинские страховки предоставляют возможность не только лечить болезни в случае их возникновения, но и обеспечивать должны уровень мониторинга состояния вашего здоровья. 


среда, 6 марта 2013 г.

The great rotation or just more spin?


When I met with the inimitable Jeffrey Gundlach in Berlin last autumn, little did I know that the Barron's crowned 'king of bonds' was about to do a 180 degree turn and focus on the equity markets by launching a troika of US funds.

Of course, thinking back, the signs were there.  He talked down expectations of growth in his bond funds and was generally bullish about the economy going forward.

So is this a marker for, what has become the catchphrase 'du jour' of the investment pundits, 'the great rotation'?

What exactly is 'The Great Rotation'?

Well, we have seen a huge bull market in bonds over the last two decades for many reasons too numerous to list here, whilst equity markets have underperformed essentially since the NASDAQ crash at the turn of the millennium. 

However now it COULD be interpreted that much of the money which flowed into these bonds are now reallocating out and into equity markets.  Thus 'The Great Rotation'.

I have long been an advocate of the fact that over the last century bull and bear markets can be tracked so that each has a period of around 12-18 years. If we assume that our cyclical bear market commenced in 1999, then we are in the 14th year of the current bear market. 

Hence a new bull market is only a few years at most away from kick starting an incredible upward move in global equity markets.

As a respected JP Morgan observer recently commented "I'm perhaps even more engaged than normal by the possibility that we are close to a multi-generational inflection point, the likes of which no-one in the markets today will have experienced."

Wow.

Of course he goes on to say that he is not sure that THIS recent move upwards in the equity markets is this inflection point, but that it could be. Furthermore he also points out that equity markets are significantly up from their lows experienced in the aftermath of the credit crunch, in 2009.

Indeed as I write this the Dow Jones Index has just peaked at an all time high, and last month in the UK, investors pulled £85m from bond funds in February alone.  We may not be at “The Great Rotation” but things are happening.

In the meantime, we believe there may be more turbulence to come, and to closely monitor short term movements in the market is still the best way to grow assets.  Contact us on how we do this and for advice on what you should be doing.

Author: linkedin small

понедельник, 4 марта 2013 г.

Harvard Management likes ETFs

Harvard Management Company, investment manager of the largest U.S. university endowment plan, has been one of the more active users of ETFs among university endowments. The investment firm uses ETFs to access emerging markets funds.In its recent statement of holdings, HMC owns about 20 ETFs - not surprising. It has, however, slashed its exposure to emerging markets ETFs in the fourth quarter, mainly in China and India. This was a very timely choice as you can see from the arrows in the graph bellow, as the most popular Emerging Market ETF (EEM) peaked on December 28, 2012 and has since retreated 6%.

Starting with Latin America, HMC reduced its exposure to Mexico via EWW by 25% in the fourth quarter of 2012. The endowment plan manager also lowered its stake in the Brazil (EWZ) by 8% last quarter. It further reduced its positions in Chile by 13% and liquidated its entire stake in the iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund (ILF).

Looking back it appears HMC made a timely move when it slashed its investment in the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI) by 44% in the fourth quarter. FXI has been hit hard since February 1, 2013. HMC got even more bearish on India and Poland, liquidating all of its positions in the highly-traded WisdomTree India Earnings ETF (EPI). HMC also cut its investment in another India fund (INP) by 48%. It eliminated its holdings in iShares MSCI Poland Capped Investable Market Index Fund (EPOL). We held on to EPI for most of our clients thru mid January 2013, but sold off as EPI peaked. EPI is now down about 12% from its January 2013 top, as you can see from the chart below.

In other parts of Asia, HMC lowered its stake in the South Korea (EWY) by 18%, but left unchanged its investments in the Malaysia Index (EWM), which has recently pulled back to a potential entry point, the Philippines (EPHE), and Indonesia ETF (IDX). Indonesia is HMC's fifth largest holding.

However, while HMC was busy reducing exposure to emerging markets ETFs, it did add to some of its U.S.-focused positions. HMC specifically chose the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) rather than the more broad based SPY to increase investments. It also moved money into the iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM), a more aggressive bet on US equities.  HMC added more money to Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG), the largest dividend ETF by assets. Probably looking to reduce fees, HMC switched a large stake in the iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA) to Vanguard MSCI EAFE ETF (VEA). Both track Europe, Asia and the Far East equity markets.

HMC was also active with commodities funds during the fourth quarter, reducing positions in the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) and the PowerShares DB Energy Fund (DBE). While bearish on agriculture and energy, HMC added to positions in the PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (DBB) and thePowerShares DB Precious Metals Fund (DBP). The DBA and DBE seem to be timely choses as inflation remains subdued, but the metal funds have hurt returns. Metal stocks have continued to lose ground as equities rally.

Author:  linkedin small